"Several months ago, I told you that range would be 15.5 to 15.8. A month ago, before the Federal Reserve had moved so dramatically, I would have said in the lower half of that range," Taylor said. "But a lot of liquidity has been put into the system in recent months, and we think that has an impact by the second half of the year."

Still, Taylor said, "we have a challenging year ahead of us."

Analysts including Erich Merkle, director of forecasting for IRN Inc., a Grand Rapids research firm, and Global Insight, a Massachusetts-based economic forecasting firm, have both predicted sales of about 15.5 million. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC has predicted 2008 U.S. auto sales at 15.6 million but has cautioned sales could dip below 15 million if the nation goes into a recession.

For the past nine years, U.S. auto sales have totaled between 16.1 million and 17.4 million.

Sales already are off to a rough start this year. January sales in the United States were down 4.3% from the same month last year, giving last month the distinction of being the worst January results in a decade.

U.S. customers bought 1.04 million vehicles in the last month, which translates into an annual seasonally adjusted selling rate of 15.24 million cars and trucks.

Taylor said he sees the economic picture as being mixed, noting that while short-term interest rates are falling, credit problems and unemployment will continue through the year.

He said there is some evidence that oil demand is declining, which could lead to a cost reduction in refined products, such as gasoline.

"That would be something that would mitigate the drag on the economy that occurs from energy prices," he said.