Eric Morath and Sharon Terlep / The Detroit News

Economists from Detroit’s Big Three automakers today see the outlook for the industry as down but not dire.

A moribund housing market, continued fuel-price concerns and worrisome consumer sentiment are expected to lead to declining auto sales in 2008, according to two of the three economists who spoke today at a Society of Automotive Analysts conference that coincides with the North American International Auto Show.

But a sales decline is likely to be mitigated by the Federal Reserve’s lowering of interest rates and the possibility that Washington policy makers could take other steps to stimulate the nation’s economy, said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, economist for Ford Motor Co. She forecasts 2008 auto industry sales as low as 15.5 million to 16 million units.

Low national unemployment and relatively stable household income also are positives for the auto industry, said Paul Traub of Chrysler LLC.

He said the 17 million vehicle-a-year peak U.S. car market, which coincided with the boom in financial and housing markets, may have been more an anomaly than a new reality.

Ted Chu of General Motors Corp. believes the U.S. auto market in 2008 will be comparable to 2007’s 16.1 million unit sales rate.

"Most of the impact will not be on total (spending) or volume, but on the mix of vehicles and the size," said Chu. "The OEMs have responded to the shift in interests for more fuel-efficient vehicles by offering different and more creative packages."

Joe Phillipi, head of AutoTrends Consulting, is forecasting U.S. sales of 15.5 million in 2008, down from an earlier forecast of 15.9 million. In 2007, sales dropped 2.5 percent to 16.1 million.

He is especially bearish on the large pickup and traditional SUV market, which already is slumping because of the rise in gas prices and sharp slowdown in housing and construction.

Tradesmen and other large pickup users can delay a new purchase for another year or two, and SUV owners are realizing they don’t need V-8 power to tow a pair of personal watercraft or snowmobiles.

"If we get a recovery, it is going to be modest," said Phillippi. "After years of strong sales, there is no pent-up demand. We are going to have to live through this correction."

A lot depends on the U.S. economy. Ford Motor Co. is expecting economic growth of 1-2 percent this year — the weakest level since 2001.

Troy Clarke, GM’s North American chief, said this week that the worst may be over in terms of sluggish U.S. auto sales.

"Maybe the first quarter and second quarter don’t have to be as bad as people thought they’d be," he told reporters during an interview at the North American International Auto Show. "This year could surprise us."

A number of analysts and industry heads have said the market could fall well below 15 million annual car and truck sales. Clarke said he doubts that’ll happen.

"It’s hard to imagine a full quarter than runs at less than (a rate of) 16 million," he said. "We’re set up for a cold winter if that’s where it is."